NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Free Expert Picks for Winning Bets

Check the NFL Divisional Round Picks by Our Expert Team

Home teams usually dominate in this stage of the postseason, especially when on two weeks’ rest, but an upset is always around the corner and that makes our experts’ NFL Divisional Round predictions really important for bettors. The How To Bet team is here to help you benefit from any mistake the sportsbooks make with their odds. Our experts forecast matchups based on analysing advanced data, exploring relevant trends, and taking into account the latest and most important team news, topped off with their innate hunch for the game. This is the recipe that continuously brings success for our NFL picks in general and our newest NFL Divisional Round picks make no exception. And here’s the best part: you get them for free!

So stop losing precious hours doing your own research for each game and looking around for the most attractive odds. Don’t stay glued to the screen waiting 24/7 for any breaking news that could endanger your wager. Quit taking harmful risks with your bets because of your team or player bias. Just leave it all to our experts – they’ve already done the job for you, unearthing the hidden value on the odds market and offering you the best bets on a plate with their NFL Divisional Round predictions. All it takes is just to give a couple of minutes of your time to read our picks, place a wager and enjoy sports betting and, most of all, winning. 

On this page, on top of breaking down all four matchups, you will also see the odds movement and the complete schedule of games in the 2nd round of the postseason. Let’s get straight to winning!

NFL Divisional Round Predictions in Detail

Bills @ Chiefs – NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks

This one should be the top game of the Divisional Round. Bills are on a five-game winning streak and totally annihilated New England in what turned out to be the fifth-most lopsided playoff game ever in terms of DVOA (the Patriots finished with -97.7% while Buffalo accumulated 138.7 %!!!). And the Chiefs are rounding out back to Super Bowl form with six straight TD possessions in the 42-21 beating of the Steelers.

There’s no wrong angle to bet on this game. The Bills finished third in points scored and first in points allowed. Their plus-194 point differential was best in the league. The Chiefs’ was plus-116. Even with this big margin of victories Buffalo finished just 11-6 because of a 0-5 record in one possession games. On October 10^th they came to Arrowhead and demolished the Chiefs 38-20 in a game that wasn’t that close. But KC’s defense improved a lot after the bad first six weeks of the season.

Back in October Steve Spagnuolo’s unit was dead last in DVOA. At the end of the regular season the Chiefs improved to 24^th overall and their weighted DVOA put them at #13. But even with such resurgence the public money went the Bills’ way for most of the week. After the odds opened at KC -2.5 (BTW, the bookies usually give a three-point advantage to the home team before adjusting, which in this case means they think the Bills are superior) before going down to -1.5. It speaks a lot when taking into account that QB Patrick Mahomes is 52-15 all-time at Arrowhead and has covered in all but one finished by him home playoff games ever.

Of all NFL Divisional Round picks this is the one I feel the least confident with. The over on this game looks very enticing but I’ve been backing the Bills all season long and I firmly believe they are able to go all the way.

Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Bills Money Line (+112)

Rams @ Buccaneers – NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks

It’s been a season of ups and downs on offense for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but the defending Super Bowl seasons proved that they are top of the league. Despite injuries, suspensions and self imposed exiles the Bucs finished first in both total offensive DVOA and pass DVOA thanks in large parts to their OL. But the biggest test of the season should come this Sunday against the Rams.

LA’s defensive unit is one of just two in the league to finish in Top 6 in total (#5), pass (#6) and rush (#5) DVOA. They absolutely harassed QB Kyler Murray in Monday’s 34-11 win over the Cardinals, limiting the once MVP candidate to 27 yards passing in the first half and a single digit rating! They recorded two sacks and two INTs effectively ending the contest before the break. And Von Miller and Aaron Donald look ready to feast on Buccaneers OL problems.

Two key figures for the champions are questionable with ankle injuries. C Ryan Jensen and T Tristan Wirfs both exited early in the 31-15 Wild Card win over the Eagles. Their absence was felt as the Bucs had three straight three-and-outs in the first half even against a bad Philadelphia pass rush. Whether both Jensen and Wirfs play will be significant for the outcome of the game.

I went back and forth when preparing my NFL Divisional Round predictions. I simply can’t bet against a seven-time Super Bowl champion playing at home against an opponent on a short week traveling across the country. And QB Matthew Stafford had to wait 13 seasons for his first playoff win. To get two in a span of seven days looks like a bit of reach for me.

Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Buccaneers Money Line (-141)

49ers @ Packers – NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks

For the third year in a row, the Packers won at least 13 regular-season games under head coach Matt LaFleur but they are yet to achieve a Super Bowl berth. In his illustrious career QB Aaron Rodgers has won basically everything. Three-time MVP (soon to be four), 449 TD passes, 10-time Pro Bowler, four-time first-team All-Pro, Super Bowl champion, and so on. But there’s one thing he had never achieved – a playoff win over the 49ers. Not only Rodgers is 0-3 but only one of those games was one possession. The last time they met the Niners beats Green Bay 37-20 in the NFC Championship Game. And they know exactly how to do it again.

Back on September 26^th Rodgers led a furious rally in the last minute on the way to a 30-28 victory in Week 3 of the season. That night the Niners were struck by injuries at RB and were forced to rely on rookie Trey Sermon. Their ground attack was non-existent and they finished with a mere 67 yards rushing. QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw an ugly INT into triple coverage yet the Niners were seconds away from eking an unlikely win.

On Saturday head coach Kyle Shanahan will have RB Elijah Mitchell available alongside Deebo Samuel leading the two-headed ground monster. The Niners finished the regular season fifth in DVOA running the football while Packers’ defense was ranked 28^th against the run. Two years ago SF ran 42 times compared to just 8 passes and you should expect more of the same in the rematch.

The biggest problem for the Niners is the status of Nick Bosa. The DE took a knee to the head and went out before halftime in their 23-17 Wild Card win against Dallas. Bosa went through the concussion protocol in just two days and was able to practice on Wednesday but is still questionable to play. Without him San Francisco will be hard pressed to have a competent pass rush and with a clean pocket at his disposal Rodgers likes to dissect opposing secondaries.

These two teams do not match that well. Alongside Niners’ advantage on the ground, GB has a favorable matchup through the air as SF 16^th ranked defense will have to find a way and stop the second best passing attack in the league. Everything points to a game, where the last team to have the ball should get the win. The line has been hovering around GB -6 since Tuesday but this is not what I like in my NFL Divisional Round predictions. Do not hesitate to bet on a high scoring game on a cold Saturday night in Green Bay.

Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Over 46.5 (-111)

Bengals @ Titans – NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks

Many feel that the Titans do not deserve to be a #1 seed. They were beaten at home by the Texans, went on a 1-3 stretch from the middle of November all the way to Christmas but thanks to some timely help by the Bengals sneaked their way to a home-field advantage. And it will be just the fifth playoff game ever played in Nashville.

Titans’ season can be split in two: they were 8-3 with RB Derrick Henry or WR A.J. Brown in the lineup, went 2-3 with both of them being on IR and once Brown got healthy got on a three-game winning streak to close out the regular season. And now with Henry expected back in action on Saturday they will be close to full strength just in time for the final stretch.

Judging by the stats Tennessee had absolutely no business being #1. According to DVOA, they are ranked #20 as a team, #20 on offense, and #12 on defense and among playoff teams only Las Vegas and Pittsburgh have worse stats. However, the weighted DVOA (which takes into account the recent form) elevates them to #8 so do not underestimate their form.

At the same time Cincinnati is ranked 19^th in total defensive DVOA but only 24^th in weighted. A week ago they allowed 6.4 YPA to RB Josh Jacobs who is a far cry from Henry even though they both are a product of the same Alabama system. If the Bengals are so porous on Saturday this may become a very long day for them.

I like Cincinnati a lot and I think they are an exciting team who will be a major force in the AFC in the years to come. I just think it’s a little too early for them for a Super Bowl push. They should hang around long enough to make it an interesting game but in the end I recommend backing the Titans.

Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Titans Money Line (-179)

NFL Divisional Round Odds

NFL Divisional Round Expert Predictions: Why Trust Them over Your Own Picks

It’s important to start with clarifying what NFL expert picks are: selected betting predictions made by people with a particularly high level of knowledge and experience in uncovering the best bets in the league. Choose this path and you’ll get detailed and perfectly reasonable suggestions on how to bet on carefully picked games that give you the highest chance of winning. Going this way, you will join a huge army of punters that trusts these selected NFL Divisional Round expert predictions.

Of course, there’s also the option to bet on your own judgement over experts’ view. Go solo and you will be fully responsible for both winning and losing, so there will be no one else to blame in case of failing. After all, it’s your money at stake.

While this is a relevant point, there are still numerous reasons why the majority prefers expert picks and considers them to be the art form of NFL betting. See the most important ones below.

• They save you precious time – You can do way better and smarter than sacrificing up to six hours of your precious time for making just one well-researched pick. Your life would be much more complete without digging through tons of data, stats, and news reports. Leave the dirty work in the hands of the specialists who devise professional NFL Divisional Round predictions.

• They are based on highly sophisticated betting models – Experts have their own recipes based on blending sciences like mathematics, informatics, physics, and others to get to the ‘one’ pick that will win you bets. Our team that’s supplying NFL Divisional Round predictions apply their own betting models and algorithms which have been developed with so much success over many years. If you don’t have the time nor the ideas to create your own, just check ours.

• They are counting on access to hardly accessible sources – To uncover the NFL Divisional Round best bets, experts are required to dive into advanced statistical data that is really complex to access, process and analyse. In addition, these information sources would cost you a lot of money while our team does it for free!

• They follow the latest news reports 24/7 for an instant reaction – Unexpected events like important injuries, health issues, head coach changes, etc. can change the odds massively. So, when making your NFL Divisional Round predictions, it’s mandatory to take into account all the breaking reports on crucial circumstances and experts do it for you. How To Bet’s team is following the latest league and team news from all types of high authority sources day in, day out.

• They are completely unbiased – By choosing to trust expert predictions, blind team or player loyalty won’t bury your chances of a career as a successful bettor ahead of time. How To Bet’s NFL Divisional Round picks are provided by 100% professionals who all have a hunch for the game but will always support it with statistical and empirical evidence.

Explaining The Main Betting Types

Now that you have decided in favor of following the experts’ advice with their special selection of NFL Divisional Round predictions, your next job is to know and understand the specifics of the betting markets. The three most popular among football betting enthusiasts are:

• Moneyline
• Point Spread
• Over/Under

All three will most certainly be offered to you by every online sportsbook so let's look at each one of these markets and explain how they work. After that you will have a complete understanding of the matter and you’ll be 100% ready to explore the best bets we have in line for you with our experts’ NFL Divisional Round predictions.

NFL Picks Straight Up Divisional Round

The straight up or moneyline betting market is probably the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a NFL game and your only job is to place a wager on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In a nutshell, with NFL picks straight up Divisional Round will offer you lots of opportunities to bet on them easily. See the following example:

Let’s say you fancy San Francisco to win the game against the favorite Green Bay. You could bet on the 49ers at odds of +185 and a stake of $100 would therefore give you a profit of $185 if they succeed. Conversely, you have to wager $225 on the Packers and they have to win the game for your profit to be $100. This is as straightforward an example as you would find – now you should be ready to take advantage of those selected NFL picks straight up Divisional Round has on offer.

NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread

People look for NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread because the straight up odds for the two teams in a particular game may be quite differing in magnitude. By trying to even them up, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the team in the role of the favorite. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently the odds available tend to be much more balanced. As a result, picks against the spread are in such demand. Check this example:

Here you see Cincinnati being given an advantage of +3.5 points, while the favorite Tennessee have a handicap of -3.5 points. If you place a wager on the Titans, they will need to win by 4 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on the Bengals and you will only lose if they lose by 4 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer even odds for both teams (-110).

When turning to expert predictions, you will most probably run across NFL Divisional Round ATS picks. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate if the pick is correct.

NFL Divisional Round Over/Under Picks

As this is the third main betting market, you will undoubtedly find many sources for NFL Divisional Round over/under picks. Here you only have one job: to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Unsurprisingly, that’s why this is also known as the Totals market. Take a look at the following example and you will surely get a grasp of the concept:

The good news is that over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting. (Especially if you have access to free expert NFL Divisional Round predictions and picks to help guide you through the process.) In our example, all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 54.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 55 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 54 points or fewer for your bet to win.

Do you understand the concept now? If the answer is ‘yes’, find the best bets available within our experts’ NFL Divisional Round over/under picks and place a wager.